The data collection, being one of the most sensitive parts of the project, has been seriously addressed starting from the very beginning of the project. It became obvious that there will not be easy to identify any tobacco smuggling – related research or statistics.

Firstly I examined the existing official data and analyzed the tobacco-related database collected by the ICHD during recent 5 years. Secondly I have had several meetings with several authorities, dealing with the concerned problems (see the next section).

A trip had been made to the Bagratashen customs office (from 02.10.05 to 05.10.05) to interview the customs officers. The main finding was the estimates of the bootlegging volumes assessment through the northern gates of Armenia (border with Georgia). Another trip to Meghri (border with Iran) is planned to take place at 22nd of March.

Another trip had been made to Tbilisi (through Akhaltsikha) from 19.01.06 to 23.01.06. The main purpose of the visit was acquaintance with the Georgian estimations of the smuggling to and from Armenia. My colleagues and ICHD partners in Georgia (particularly Strategic Research Institute representatives – www.src.ge) assisted in having several meetings with stakeholders, including the business representatives. The data and estimations are being delivered by e-mail communication up to now.

Jointly with three volunteers (interns in the International Center for Human Development) we have carried out small-sized survey of smuggled products in Yerevan trading points.

From July 8 to 15, 2006 I have participated in the 13th Tobacco Control Conference in Washington D.C., USA. It was a very good chance to have meetings with experts from many countries. Several aspects of smuggling problem have been discussed with various experts. I also obtained a number of publications on tobacco control and smuggling issue.

The core component in research paper development process was identification of the correct methodology of assessing the current smuggling and the risk of possible smuggling in Armenia. After revision of the international experience and internationally acceptable models I firstly chose the methodology based on exports-imports calculation suggested by Merriman, Yurekly and Chaloupka. After a thorough research of the matter, supported by co-operative assistance of the IPF network members (in identifying the trade-partner countries’ exports volumes to Armenia) it became obvious that this methodology would not be appropriate for Armenia, as there have been recorded series of discrepancies within the “countries of origin” for the cigarettes’ imports to Armenia and “countries of destination” for the cigarettes’ exports from the trade-partner countries.

The initial research findings and key elements have been discussed during a round table meeting organized by the ICHD in the framework of a different project and the expert’s opinions and recommendations have been considered for further revision.

The main focus had been placed on the cigarettes’ market size assessment based on the latest and reliable data of the nation-wide smoking survey conducted by the ICHD. All known methodologies to estimate the smuggling volumes, discussed in international literature, have been considered and used as applicable for the research.

The final draft of the research paper had been delivered to Mrs. Hana Ross, the international mentor for the research, who did a serious revision of the paper. These revisions, as well as the relevant comments have then been considered while compiling the final version of the paper.

Upon finalizing the research, I organized a round table discussion inviting representatives from the Ministry of Finance and Economy, National Statistical Service, Customs Service, NGOs. The results of the research have been discussed and I receive several suggestions/comments, which have been used in final revisions of the research paper. The final paper have been designed for publication and published in 200 copies. The dissemination of the paper is currently being undertaken.

The research finings will be used by the International Center for Human Development in its next research project devoted to deeper analysis of tobacco smuggling in Armenia and policy advocacy.