Title: The future of Kaliningrad: a pilot region or exclave?

Brief description

Research Problem

Main objectives

Sources

Research Methodology

Impact of Research

Dissemination

Bibliography

Books and articles

Web-material

Brief description:

The aim of the project is to examine the role of cross-border cooperation in solving the Kaliningrad problem and integrating this Russian enclave on the Baltics into a single European economic and legal space; study the research issue in the context of the EU’s Northern Dimension Initiative; a write a monograph and policy paper for the European Commission, European Parliament, Nordic Council and Council of the Baltic Sea States.

Research Problem

Kaliningrad is a small Russian enclave on the Baltics. It is a unique region due to its both history and geopolitical location. Kaliningrad was Russia’s military outpost on the Baltics in the Cold War period. However, with the breakdown of the USSR the region had to deal with numerous problems ranging from provision of basic supplies and transit to visa and customs regimes. NATO and EU enlargements created a new set of problems that are far from being solved.

The problems that Kaliningrad had to face in the post-Soviet period can be grouped into the following categories:

• Economic challenges. Similar to other Russian regions, Kaliningrad has suffered from a severe economic decline since the introduction of the market reforms. Since 1990 industrial production has fallen by more than half. The Kaliningrad Region was especially strongly affected by the Russian financial meltdown of August 1998 because of its dependence on foreign trade.
• Trade and transit. Given its small size and enclave location, Kaliningrad is dependent on imports, the value of which is three times that of its exports, with heavy reliance on trade and economic interaction with mainland Russia. Every year more than 6 million tons of goods transit, mainly by rail, through Lithuania to and from Russia. 55% of this traffic is oil, coke and coal. Kaliningrad also imports many goods from its immediate neighbors, Poland and Lithuania. Although Kaliningrad has relatively more trade links with its non-Russian neighbors than other Russian border regions, it is still relatively poorly integrated into the regional economy.
• Energy supplies. The Kaliningrad Region is almost totally dependent on imported energy from the Russian mainland and produces only 20% of its own needs. The delivery of fuel oil and coal is costly and complicated, because of the need to negotiate the transit regime with neighboring countries. Gas is supplied from mainland Russia through a pipeline which goes via Belarus and Lithuania. The Kaliningrad authorities want to increase the share of gas for electricity production.
• Education. Kaliningrad State University and five other higher education institutions do not meet modern educational standards (especially in the sectors such as microelectronics, biotechnology, new manufacturing processes and business administration).
• Public health care services in Kaliningrad are close to the Russian average. Diseases such as, tuberculosis, diphtheria, measles and epidemic paratyphoid are widespread. Kaliningrad is among the worst regions in Russia for registered cases of HIV, and is by far the most affected area in the Baltic Sea region.
• Environment. Kaliningrad is the second worst source of pollution in the Baltic Sea region after St. Petersburg, generating more than 400,000 tons annually of domestic and industrial waste. Sanitary conditions in urban areas are deteriorating, and the sewage system dates back to pre-WWII.
• Crime. As in many other parts of Russia, crime is widespread in Kaliningrad, thriving on weak institutions. Organized crime, trafficking in human beings, drugs and stolen vehicles and illegal migration are all present. Smuggling - notably of amber, alcohol and cigarettes – and prostitution are also prevalent. According to official statistics, the level of crime is 20% higher than the Russian average. Criminality, linked to corruption, poses a threat to economic development and the development of a democratic system governed by the rule of law.
• Constraints on the mobility of persons. During the Soviet period people from Kaliningrad traveled freely within the USSR. Since the break-up of the USSR, they have to travel some 500 kilometers through Lithuania and either Latvia or Belarus in order to get to the rest of Russia. The introduction of the Schengen acquis by new EU member states will have an impact on third countries in terms of visa requirements and border controls. This will have implications for transit and travel of persons. Travel, for whatever purpose, to or through EU member states will require possession of a visa. Visa-free transit (currently available to Kaliningrad and certain categories of Russian citizens transiting Lithuania) will no longer be possible. In addition, Kaliningrad citizens will be obliged to travel in possession of a valid passport (as opposed to the internal identity documents which are currently accepted).

These developments have attracted a great deal of attention from the world research community. One group of work examined socio-economic development of the region in the post-Communist period.  Other scholars studied military-strategic aspects of the problem.  The third category of works analyzed the implications of NATO and EU enlargements for Kaliningrad.  Finally, some experts discussed the future of the region and suggested concrete recommendations and options.  These works, however, lacked a comprehensive and systematic approach to the problem paying attention only to its specific – and sometimes isolated – aspects. It is an ambition of this project to offer both a multidimensional and forward-looking view of the issue that aims not only at theoretical but also practical angle.

Main objectives

This study seeks to broaden under-standing of Kaliningrad’s place in the EU-Russia relationship by con-sidering the following fundamental questions:

• What sort of Russia’s federal policies towards Kaliningrad should be suggested?
• How can the EU and other regional and subregional institutions contribute to the international cooperation around Kaliningrad?
• How can the problems stemming from EU enlargement be solved?
• What is the future of the region? Would it remain an isolated ‘island’ surrounded by the EU ‘waters’ or could it become a ‘gate-way’ or ‘pilot’ region that may offer a model which could be attractive to other Russian border areas?

There are also a number of more theoretical questions:

• Is the national sovereignty over the territories still important in the post-modern age?
• Do the national borders matter in the present-day world? Do they divide or unite peoples of Europe?
• How can the Kaliningrad issue help to shift the focus of European politics from the ‘hard’ to ‘soft’ security agenda?
• Is it possible to make a subregional/regional security system more stable through intensive cross- and transborder cooperation?
• Is Kaliningrad a place for inter-civilizational contact and cooperation or a border between Cosmos (the West) and Chaos (the East)  or manifestation of a Huntingtonian-type ‘clash of civilizations’?

Sources

The data for the project will be drawn from the following sources:

• The search on Internet (For the most important web-sites see Bibliography)
• Interviews with officials, politicians, NGO leaders  and experts
• Governmental publications and materials
• Statistical information, yearbooks, handbooks and reference books
• Periodicals
• Research literature: monographs, analytical papers, and articles

Research Methodology

Since the project does not just entail data collection but also data assessment three main principles will be implemented with regard to selecting and interpreting sources:

• Representativeness. Data should represent most important and typical trends rather than occasional or irregular developments.
• Informativeness. Sources that provide valuable and timely information are given priority.
• Innovativeness. Sources that offer original data, fresh ideas and non-traditional approaches are preferable.

Since the project aims at producing policy recommendations, evaluation of Kaliningrad’s  current status and its potential is important. For this reason, a SWOT analysis could be helpful to assess strong/weak points and opportunities/threats with regard to the future of the Kaliningrad Region. An interactive matrix that aggregates results of the SWOT analysis will be created.

Impact of Research

The project can contribute to the debate on the future of Kaliningrad in many ways:

• Academically, it provides scholars with theoretical framework and research instruments to collect and assess data on Kaliningrad as well as to develop new, non-traditional, approaches to solving region’s numerous problems.
• Politically, the project demonstrates the need of international cooperation to cope with the new ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ security threats posed by the turbulent processes in a period of rapid change and transition in the post-Communist countries.
• Culturally, it facilitates mutual understanding between various Western and Russian schools of political thought that differ by their methods, principles, cultural and scientific background, intellectual traditions and mentality.
• Educationally, the project encourages European studies - in terms of both research and teaching - in Russia and internationally. Also, it is potentially helpful for the class-room use of advanced teaching and research technologies, including information technologies.

Dissemination:

A number of audiences will benefit by this study:

• Decision-makers: copies of finished documents will be submitted to the Russian and EU executive and legislative bodies dealing with the Kaliningrad issues;
• The academic community (through my publications and participation in various fora) and students (through my teaching activities); and
• NGOs (via my publications and attendance of policy fora and public hearings).
  

It should be also noted that results of the project could be easily disseminated through my partner institutions’ (Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC; Copenhagen Peace Research Institute and Schlesvig-Holstein Institute of Peace) mailing lists that include hundreds experts (policymakers, academics, members of NGOs, etc.).

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books and articles

Alksnis, Victor, Ivanova, Anastasiya. 2001. “Baltiyskiy uzel.” [The Baltic knot] Nezavisimaya Gazeta 28 March: 4 (in Russian).

Baranovsky, Vladimir. 1994. ‘Conflict developments on the territory of the former Soviet Union’ in SIPRI Yearbook 1994, 169-204. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Batt, Judy. 1999. Final report of the reflection group on the long-term implications of EU enlargement: the nature of the new border. Florence: The Robert Schuman Center for Advanced Studies, European University Institute with The Forward Studies Unit, European Commission.

Berg E. 2000. “‘Border crossing’ in manifest perceptions and actual needs.” In Borders, regions, and peoples, edited by M. Van der Velde and H. Van Houtum, 154-165. London: Pion Ltd.

Bubenets, Alexander. 2001. “Eskadrenny subject ‘Kaliningrad’.” [Battleship-subject ‘Kaliningrad’] Nezavisimaya Gazeta 24 February: 3 (in Russian).

Cherkesov, Victor. 2001. “Interview with Victor Cherkesov, Presidential Representative in the Northern-Western Federal District.” Rossiyskaya gazeta 19 April: 1, 3 (in Russian).

Chichkin, Alexei. 2001. “Vilnyus navodit mosty.” [Vilnius builds bridges] Rossiyskaya Gazeta 31 March: 1-2 (in Russian).

Commission of the European Communities. 2000. Draft action plan for the Northern Dimension in the external and cross-border policies of the European Union 2000-2003. Commission working document, 28/2/2000. Brussels: Commission of the European Communities.

Commission of the European Communities. 2001. Communication on Kaliningrad, January 2000. Brussels: Commission of the European Communities.

Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. 2000. Baltiya – transevropeiskiy koridor v XXI vek [Baltics is a trans-European corridor to the 21st century]. Moscow: Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (in Russian)

Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. 2001. “Interesy Rossii na severe Evropy: v chem oni?” [Russian interests on the European North: what is it?] Nezavisimaya Gazeta 22 March: 11 (in Russian).

Deryabin, Yuri. 2000. ‘Severnoe izmerenie’ politiki Evropeiskogo Soyuza i interesy Rossii [The EU’s Northern Dimension and Russia’s interests]. Moscow: Exlibris Press (in Russian).

Fairlie, Lyndelle. 1998. “Kaliningrad: visions of the future” In Kaliningrad: the European amber region, edited by Pertti Joenniemi and Jan Prawitz, 178-225. Aldershot: Ashgate.

Fairlie, Lyndelle. 2000. “Will the EU use the Northern Dimension to solve its Kaliningrad dilemma?” In Northern Dimensions 2000: the yearbook of Finnish foreign policy, edited by Tuomas Forsberg, 85-101. Helsinki: The Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Falkov, Victor. 2001. “Putin soglasilsya poekhat v Litvu.” [Putin agreed to visit Lithuania] Nezavisimaya Gazeta 31 March: 1 (in Russian).

Fyodorov, Gennady. 1998. “The social and economic development of Kaliningrad” In Kaliningrad: the European amber region, edited by Pertti Joenniemi and Jan Prawitz, 32-56. Aldershot: Ashgate.

Ginsburg, Solomon. 2000. “Problemy rashireniya Evrosoyuza v kontekste razvitiya Kaliningradskoi Oblasti.” [The EU enlargement in the context of the development of the Kaliningrad region] In Litva i Kaliningrad: perspectivy sotrudnichestva [Lithuania and Kaliningrad: prospects for cooperation], edited by Raimundas Lopata, Solomon Ginsburg, Algimantas Jankauskas and Kristina Vaiciunaite, 50-51. Vilnius: Eugrimas Leidykla (in Russian).

Gurova, Sylvia. 2000a. “EU/Kaliningrad: future aspirations.” In The EU & Kaliningrad: Kaliningrad and the impact of EU enlargement, edited by James Baxendale, Stephen Dewar and David Gowan, 117-125. Federal Trust.

Heikkinen, Ari. 2000. EU’s Northern Dimension Action Plan – challenges for implementation. The Speech at the King’s College, London, 11 November.

Hoff, M., Timmermann, H. 1993. ‘Kaliningrad: Russia’s future gateway to Europe?’ RFE/RL Research Report, 2, 36: 37-43.

Jahnke, Joachim. 2000. “The speech of Mr. Joachim Jahnke, Vice-President, EBRD.” In Foreign Ministers‘ conference on the Northern Dimension, Helsinki, 11-12 November 1999. A compilation of speeches, edited by Marja Nissinen, 27-28. Helsinki: Unit for the Northern Dimension in the Ministry for Foreign Affairs. Finland.

Joenniemi Pertti. 1996. Kaliningrad: a region in search for a past and a future. Background paper prepared for the International Colloquium ‘Kaliningrad. Future prospects of the region.’ Ostsee-Akademie, Travemunde, 3-5 November 1996.

Joenniemi, Pertti. 1999. Kaliningrad as a discursive battle-field. Copenhagen: Copenhagen Peace Research Institute (COPRI Working Paper no. 15, 1999).

Joenniemi, Pertti, Lopata, Raimundas, Sirutavicius, Vladas, Vilpisauskas, Ramunas. 2000. Impact assessment of Lithuania’ integration into the EU on relations between Lithuania and Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation. Vilnius: Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University.

Joenniemi, Pertti, Sergounin, Alexander. 2000. 'Russia, regionalism and the EU's Northern Dimension', in: Graem Herd (ed.), European Security & Post-Soviet Space: Integration or Isolation? 30-45. Aberdeen: Conflict Studies Research Center.

(2000). Strategiya razvitiya Kaliningrtadskoi Oblasti kak ‘pilotnogo regiona’ sotrudnichestva Rossiyskoi Federatsii i Evropeskogo Soyuza: mezhdunarodnye aspekty regionalnoi strategii [A strategy of development of the Kaliningrad region as a “pilot region” in the context of cooperation between the Russian Federation and the European Union: international aspects of a regional strategy], edited by Anatoly P. Khlopetski. Kaliningrad: The Kaliningrad Branch of the All-Russian Co-ordination Council of Russian Industrialists (in Russian).

2001. “Kontseptsiya federalnoi sotsialno-ekonomicheskoi politiki v otnoshenii Kaliningradskoi Oblasti.” [The concept of federal social-economic policy towards the Kaliningrad Oblast] Kommersant 2 April: 6 (in Russian).

Kurbanova, Galina. 2001. “Teply veter s Baltiki.” [The warm wind from Baltics] Parlamentskaya Gazeta 29 March: 7 (in Russian).

Lachowski, Zdzislaw. 1998. “Kaliningrad as a security issue: an expert view from Poland” In Kaliningrad: the European amber region, edited by Pertti Joenniemi and Jan Prawitz, 130-148. Aldershot: Ashgate.

Leshukov, Igor. 2000a. “Northern Dimension: interests and perceptions.” In The Northern Dimension: an assessment and future development, edited by Atis Lejins and Jorg-Dietrich Nackmayr, 38-49. Riga: Latvian Institute of International Affairs.

Leshukov, Igor. 2000b. “The regional-center divide: the compatibility conundrum.” In The EU & Kaliningrad: Kaliningrad and the impact of EU enlargement, edited by James Baxendale, Stephen Dewar and David Gowan, 127-139. Federal Trust.

Leshukov, Igor. 2000c. “Rossiya i Evropeiskiy Soyuz: strategiya vzaimootnosheniy.” [Russia and the European Union: a strategy of interaction] In Rossiya i osnovnye instituty bezopasnosti v Evrope: vstupaya v XXI vek [Russia and the main European security institutions: approaching the 21st century], edited by Dmitri Trenin, 23-48. Moscow: Moscow Carnegie Center (in Russian).

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Pipiya, Besik. 2001. “Victor Cherkesov reshaet vse.” [Victor Cherkersov decides everything] Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 11 April: 4 (in Russian).

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Web-material

http://www.baltnet.ru - site of the news agency

http://www.copri.dk (Copenhagen Peace Research Institute)

http://www.enet.ru - site of the information agency

http://europa.eu.int/external_relations/north_dim – official site of the European Commission that covers the Northern Dimension project, including Kaliningrad

http://www.gov.kaliningrad.ru – official site of the Kaliningrad Regional Administration

http://www.iews.org – the site of the East-West Institute

http://www.isn.ethz.ch (International Relations & Security Network, Center for Security and Conflict Research of the Zurich University of Technology)

http://www.kaliningrad.ru – site of the information agency

http://www.klgd.ru – official site of the Kaliningrad City Administration

http://www.koenig.ru – site of the news agency

http://www.regions.ru – the site of the information agency that monitors situation in various Russian regions, including Kaliningrad

http://sipri.se (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)