Georgi Hristov Ranchev

Research Project

Free Trade Zone in Southeast Europe?

Harmonization of tax and customs legislation

PART ONE

1.General overview of the European Union tax and customs legislation

2.Southeast Europe and integration in the European Union

3.Conclusions

PART TWO

1.The establishment of a free trade zone in Southeast Europe

2.The role of the Stability Pact in trade liberalization and facilitation

3.Analysis of the risks

4.Conclusions and outcome

 

PART ONE

Survey on the level of harmonization of the relevant tax and customs legislation of the countries in Southeast Europe

The research will outline the level of harmonization of tax and customs legislation as per the requirements of the European Union in most of the countries in Southeast Europe (SEE).  From the countries in the region only Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania have declared their firm intentions for joining the European Union and have initiated the accession process.  However, in view of the consequences of the Kosovo crisis, a strategic approach shall be taken to lead the countries on the road of stability and future prosperity.  A number of strategic plans state that Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia and Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) should join the European Union as well even at a later stage.  Thus mainly for the purposes of the second part of the research, the tax and customs legislation of these countries from this aspect will be analyzed as well. 

1.General overview of the European Union tax and customs legislation

In this section the basic elements and principles of the European Union legislation will be summarized.

1.1.Analysis of the European Union Legislation on Direct Taxes

n       Exchange of information directive;

n       Parent-Subsidiary directive and the proposal for amendments;

n       Merger Directive and the proposal for amendments.

1.2.Analysis of the European Union Legislation on Indirect Taxes

n       VAT directives, recommendations and proposals;

n       Excise duty directives, recommendations and proposals;

n       Customs duty aspects of the harmonization process and the EC Customs Code.

n       Top

2.Southeast Europe and integration in the European Union

The research will give details with regard to the actual stage of harmonization in each country in relation to the European Union accession process.  The countries will be divided in three main groups: countries that have been invited to start negotiations with the EU for accession, countries that have initiated the EU accession process and countries which have not declared yet their European Union accession ambitions.  Summaries of the relevant reports of the European Commission on the progress of each applicant country and other relevant institutions ( i.e. - World Bank, IMF, OECD, etc.) will be given in outline.  Comparisons will be made with the relevant processes taking place in Central and Eastern Europe.

2.1.General Overview of the Position of each country

The analysis in this section will include but will not be limited to the following points with regard to the position of each country:

n       who will join the European Union and what is the current position of each analyzed country;

n       which countries can be considered “favorites” in the EU accession process;

n       how will membership in the European Union  be achieved and what are the general criteria that have to be fulfilled in order that negotiations to start or be finalized;

n       what further tax and customs changes are necessary in each country’s legislation;

n       summary of the Customs and Taxation Pre-Accession Strategy of DG XXI and other relevant documents of any of the directorates of the European Commission;

n       summaries of the European Commission’s reports on the process towards accession of the applicant countries from the region.

2.2.The rate of harmonization of the tax and customs legislation of the countries from SEE

This section will give details on the relevant status of the tax and customs legislation in effect on the territories of these countries.  The research will use the method of comparative analysis in order to rank the countries according to the level of completion of the harmonization process.  The countries will be ranked according to three separate levels of analysis:

n       harmonization in the field of direct taxes;

n       harmonization in the field of indirect taxes;

n       harmonization of customs duty legislation.

n       3.Conclusions

The first part of the research will make relevant conclusions on the level of the harmonization process in each country, using the method of comparative tax analysis and widely accepted international tax principles.

PART TWO

Free Trade Zone in Southeast Europe

1.The establishment of a free trade zone in Southeast Europe

The countries in the region are small and relatively “isolated” from an economic point of view.  On the other hand stabilization in general in Southeast Europe is possible only if a more advanced level of economical development and integration is achieved.  Thus the “isolation” of the countries can be considered the main barrier towards stabilization.  A regional customs union of the countries in the region and relevant harmonization of VAT and Excise Duties can be the considered an appropriate scenario especially for the economies of the Balkan countries.  In this way the requirements of the European Union in the field of taxation and customs reform can turn out to be a common starting point in the direction of economic integration of the region and future accession of the Balkan (SEE) countries in the European Union.  On the other hand the week institutions and governance constraint economic development and adversely affect investor’s perception of the region.

The data analyzed in the first part of the research will serve as a base for the discussion of the possibilities of the establishment of a free trade zone in Southeast Europe.  Focus will be given on the level of harmonization in the field of indirect taxes and customs duty regimes.  The levels of corporate tax rates, available tax incentives will be given in outline and discussed as well.

2.The role of the Stability Pact in trade liberalization and facilitation

One of the main goals of the Stability pact is the creation of “vibrant” market economies in Southeast Europe based on sound macro policies.  In order to fulfill this objective the markets must become open to foreign direct investment and the trade is to be based on effective and transparent customs and commercial/regulatory regimes.  The research will identify the main scenarios open to the Stability Pact for achieving the ambitious objective of trade liberalization and facilitation. 

Recent publications of leading scholars state that agreements between small, closed developing countries are unlikely to have a positive impact on growth.  Another key finding is that only countries located to large developed economies can benefit from such location.  The following issues will be analyzed in more details in view of the objectives of the Stability Pact:

n       prospects for changes in tax and customs systems, infrastructure, institutions and social aspects of the reforms;

n       the role of trade agreements and double tax treaties;

n       the role of tax incentives in fostering economic cooperation in the region, between the countries in the region and the rest of Europe and the world;

n       bureaucracy and corruption - how can we fight them;

n       social and economic integration of minorities;

n       the advantages and disadvantages of the free trade areas;

n       the example of an operating free trade zone in the region - i.e. Bulgaria and Macedonia.

n       3.Analysis of the risks

The following risks for the failure or the delay of such a strategic project will be ascertained and discussed based on available statistical, economic and political data at the moment of the research:

n       analysis of the differences in the economies of the SEE countries that exist currently and discussion of the possibilities for economical integration as well as analysis of the option of implementing of a single currency (euro) in the region;

n       analysis of the political risks - are the countries in the region prepared for surrendering partly their national sovereignty in view of such a project;

n       analysis of the possibilities for funding and assistance from the European Union and/or through the Stability Pact that can be decisive for the project;

n       discussion on whether the processes of integration of the economies of the countries on the Balkans should be achieved prior to the process of European Union integration or be considered a parallel process.

4.Conclusions and outcome

Conclusions on the possibilities for the fulfillment of such a project on a Southeast Europe scale should be made as a result of the research.  Recommendations on the role of the Stability Pact will be presented and made available to the public by way of series of articles in support of the idea for establishment of a common free zone in Southeast Europe.  Some of the future basic political and economic steps based on which Bulgaria will try to become a stabilization factor of prime value on the Balkans will be identified.

The first part of the research will be finalized by 30 June 2001 while the second part will be closed by the end of year 2001.  The results of the research will serve as a valuable resource material for initiating politically oriented discussions in Bulgaria for the promotion of a project of such a political and economic value for the countries in Southeast Europe.