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Nicu Popescu
International Policy Fellowship
Research Project Proposal 2005/2006

The Conflict Resolution Dimension of the European Neighbourhood Policy:
The Cases of Abkhazia and South Ossetia   

One of the key objectives of the European Neighbourhood Policy is to contribute to the settlement of regional conflicts in the EU’s neighbourhood. The proposed research is primarily concerned with ways to better coordinate and integrate the political, economic and security dimensions of ENP in order to contribute to conflict resolution in the EU’s vicinity. The paper will look at the security instruments at EU’s disposal as well as into how increased economic relations and political cooperation under ENP can impact on conflict resolution patterns in the EU’s neighbourhood. In order to elucidate the findings of the paper, I will take the Abkhaz and South Ossetia conflicts in Georgia as a possible case where ENP can be designed as to contribute decisively to conflict resolution.

The first part of the paper will analyse which political, economic and security elements of ENP can be used to achieve a stabilising impact on conflicts in EU’s neighbourhood. First, I will look into what are the implications for conflict resolution of increased political dialogue, democratic conditionality and the perspective of new contractual relations between the EU and states affected by secessionist conflicts. Second, I will focus on how increased market integration with the EU, or just the expectations of it, shapes the way conflict parties perceive their interests and strategies in conflict resolution. The issue of financial assistance from the EU will also be dealt with. Third, I will look at EU security instruments that could be deployed to contribute to conflict resolution. The paper will pay particular attention to civilian capabilities, as well as to ways to support security sector reform as part of the complex measures needed to advance the resolution of conflicts. Fourth, the paper will seek to model an integrated approach to conflict resolution, keeping in mind that the overall level of political and economic relations with countries like Moldova or Georgia is at least as important for conflict transformation as particular EU policies on the conflicts in Transnistria, Abkhazia or South Ossetia.  Fifth, I will look at ways to promote democratisation in the secessionist entities through the external empowerment of pro-reform constituencies in these regions.

The second part of the paper will use the framework of analysis outlined above to discuss ways the EU could contribute to the settlement of the two secessionist conflicts in Georgia, namely Abkhazia and South Ossetia. First, an overview of the EU policies on secessionist entities will be given. Second, the paper will look at the way the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia are present in EU’s relations with other international actors, such the UN, the OSCE, the US and Russia. Third, the paper will put forward a number of ideas on what instruments the EU could deploy under ENP in order to influence positively the settlement of the dispute in Georgia. Some of these can be “borrowed” from the EU approach to the conflicts in the Western Balkans. I will argue that these instruments need not be directed only on Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but rather on Georgia as a whole, because advances in EU-Georgia relations per se will be crucial for the settlement of the conflicts.

In order to strengthen the EU capacity to contribute to the resolution of conflicts, the ENP offer has to meet a number of criteria for effectiveness. These would include that the benefits of ENP have to be higher than the benefits of the status quo for key actors in the conflict; the benefits should be attractive, credible and achievable within a visible time span; they should aim at strengthening those actors and constituencies that favour the conflict resolution.

The strategy behind the EU policy towards the conflict resolution in Abkhazia and South Ossetia should be centred on the necessity of decreasing the benefits of the status quo for the elites in those entities, while increasing the attractiveness of Georgia for ordinary citizens and business actors. The priority for the EU should be to gain leverage in the conflicts by increasing its offer, which will make possible the use conditionality in promoting a settlement. In order to be effective, the EU policy on the conflicts in South Caucasus needs to be reinforced by a comprehensive and coherent political, economic and security approach under ENP on the region as whole.