TIMETABLE

FOR THE PROJECT PROPOSAL FOR CONTINUED FELLOWSHIP

“Realistic” Approach to Regional Security in the South Caucasus

2002-2003 OSI International Policy fellow

George Tarkhan-Mouravi

Implementation

At the second phase of my research work, the main focus will be on how the analysis carried out during the previous stage of research work is applied to various models considered from the viewpoint of for achieving regional security and development objectives, and what could be the most effective ways of implementing ideas developed previously, and how positive results can be achieved.

I intend to carry out a thorough assessment of the scenarios and options in the area of regional security, stability and cooperation, as well as an assessment of obstacles to positive development. Another focus of the study continues to be on how through globalisation and the impact of events in remote regions of the world, is formed the new understanding of internationally recognised codes of behaviour and of acceptable political options, in particular with regard of interethnic relations.

The ultimate goal of the project was and is supporting the development of long-term, strategic thinking and planning among top-level policy-makers in the region, empowering the society at large to follow, discuss, understand and participate in designing the country security related (and other important) policies. My involvement, together with my IPF colleague, Nana Sumbadze, in running the Institute of Policy Studies, and regular country-wide panel survey carried out by us, will definitely create a powerful instrument for achieving such goal. Equally important from this viewpoint is my participation in a number of governmental commissions and working groups, such as the Editorial Board for the national Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Programme.

However, much more attention should be paid to exchange of ideas and concepts with experts and decision-makers in other countries of the South Caucasus. I will build on the contacts and cooperation established during the previous travels to the region, in order to wider disseminate my findings and initiate public debate around the issues in question also in Baku and Yerevan.

Along the same lines as during the first year of work, during the first half of the project implementation period I will continue collecting primary information, analysing results of existing opinion surveys and carrying out pilot in-depth interviews. Parallel to this, I will continue studying the opinion and attitudes among local decision-makers and experts, also collecting information about western interpretation of security-related processes and preferable development scenarios in the Caucasus. I intend to travel both in the region, i.e. visiting Istanbul, Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow, and to Europe and US, attending conferences and making presentations. Also, if possible, I will meet leading western experts on the Caucasus.

During the winter of 2002 I will be analysing obtained results and crosschecking first conclusions. By the spring of 2003 I will prepare the draft text of the research paper, as well as the interim report. By that time I will finalise and publish several papers on Caucasian security, and start preparing a draft text of the book, to be finalised in the fall of 2003.

Time management:

August 1, 2002 – October 31, 2003

From	To	Activities
August 1, 2002	August 1, 2003	Meetings and interviews with politicians and experts
August 1, 2002	August 1, 2003	Media monitoring and analysis
October 25	November 10	Panel survey - 1st round
May 28, 2003	June 15, 2003	Panel survey - 2nd round
June 16, 2003	June 30, 2003	Analysing data
May 10, 2003	May 17, 2003	Presentation of preliminary findings and materials, uploading draft research paper
May 19, 2003	June 19, 2003	Preparation of the draft policy paper
June 20, 2003	July 31, 2003	Testing the conclusions and ideas of the papers, comparing with other studies
August 1, 2003	September 30, 2003	Preparation of the final draft papers, consultations with the mentor
October 31, 2003	November 15, 2003	Publishing and presenting the final report
December 1, 2003	December 31, 2003	Publishing of the book