PROJECT PROPOSAL FOR CONTINUED FELLOWSHIP

2001 OSI International Policy fellow

George Tarkhan-Mouravi

“Realistic” Approach to Regional Security in the South Caucasus

Project Background

My research project, being a continuation of my IPF 2001 project ‘New Factors, Initiatives & Perceptions of Regional Security: Feasibility & Implications of a "Stability Pact for South Caucasus"’ intends to develop further the approach developed during this latter work, with more focus on implementation aspects of my approach.

During 2001, I have attempted to analyse the feasibility of such models for regional security system as described in the “Stability Pact for the Caucasus” proposal prepared by the Center for European Policy Studies in May 2000 on the initiative of the then OSCE High Commissioner for National Minorities Max van der Stoel, as well as in its later modifications. Their main idea was “to draw on modern European models of shared sovereignty, interdependence and multi-tier governing structures.” Unfortunately, policies suggested in these models were hardly feasible, while procedures and approaches in achieving stated objectives were not realistic.

I have argued that while no parallel solution for the conflict and for regional cooperation seems to be feasible, there are certain general principles that have better prospects than seeking comprehensive regional model before the resolution of conflicts. It seems that although for each of the conflicts a comprehensive peace settlement can and should be a preferable option, due to the scale of overall damage caused by the conflict, - open-end, incremental, piecemeal approach seems to be by far more effective in dealing with regional issues. At the same time, comprehensive models, but also and rather, the principles and frameworks for regional arrangements, should be openly discussed and developed through second-trek diplomacy, through unofficial meetings of experts, researchers and NGO activists of all interested parties, preparing conceptual raw material for future progress.

Thus, my essential approach was to seek a piecemeal process for regional cooperation through effective security arrangements, European integration and relevant international involvement, with US as a key actor and mediator. Dealing with conflicts, it also seemed to be more effective to discuss first practical matters of transportation, repatriation or economic revival. It might be advantageous to declare a moratorium for discussing status issues for secessionist territories apart of general procedures and willingness to proceed (so, all external players could make a joint declaration of unacceptability of unilateral secession, as well as the unjustified use of violence), although this would not be easy to achieve with the winning parties in conflict.

Step by step approach is a realistic alternative to overall resolution when dealing with each conflict separately, but keeping the regional dimension in mind should be preferable. External players could form a joint structure to deal with all regional matters from single perspective, and as a possible framework for this it is suggested to create a group provisionally called Friends of the UN Secretary General for the Caucasus, along the same line as Friends of the UN Secretary General for Georgia is now operating (informally called Friends of Georgia Group). At the same time, the countries of the region at some stage could enter a joint commission for discussing issues of common interest, such as epidemics, trans-border crime and drugs trafficking, environment, etc. This may be of great importance as part of a confidence building process, as mistrust between countries and communities is the major obstacle to progress.

Among the rich ideas that have great potential is the suggestion of defining a special status for the states of the South Caucasus on their way to integration to EU membership, that would be weaker than formal candidacy but require certain adjustment beyond OSCE and Council of Europe standards. As there is strong attraction toward Europe throughout the region, such status could become a very useful instrument for strengthening democratic institutions and principles. Other measures as e.g. creating special (free) economic zones under international regimes along the border line of a conflict zone (Gali region could be a perfect training ground for such ideas), or creating development triangle on the Georgian territory near Azeri and Armenian border. It may acquire an official status and special regime in order to strengthen further the economic cooperation between parties.

Summing up, my approach can be described as: piecemeal process with international mediation and guarantees at every stage; initiation broad public debate around the issue and much attention to public relations aspect, involvement of all interest groups and especially ethnic groups in the debate; gradual building on co-operational areas with special attention to economic and security aspects... (instead of preparing detailed plans on [inter]governmental level and only later informing the population), requesting the assistance of international actors in designing and implementing the security arrangement process.

Objectives and outcomes for Georgia and the Caucasus

At the second phase of my research work, the main focus will be on how the analysis carried out during the previous stage of research work is applied to various models considered from the viewpoint of for achieving regional security and development objectives, and what could be the most effective ways of implementing ideas developed previously, and how positive results can be achieved.

I intend to carry out a thorough assessment of the scenarios and options in the area of regional security, stability and cooperation, as well as an assessment of obstacles to positive development. The study of military-strategic and political developments will be aimed at better understanding of political processes of Georgian/Caucasian societies and conceptual changes going in their depth, on their role in establishing regional security, stability and co-operation. Another focus of the study continues to be on how through globalisation and the impact of events in remote regions of the world, is formed the new understanding of internationally recognised codes of behaviour and of acceptable political options.

It was intended already during the first year that the final outcome of the fellowship to be a book on regional security in the Caucasus, providing a synthetic analysis of the completed research and its conclusions. However, unexpected developments in security area (such as September 11 events, war against terrorism and American military presence in Central Asia and Caucasus) require total reconsideration of general security setting. Thus, I intend to finish the conceptually revised book by the end of the project implementation period.

In addition, a number of publications on security issues from comparative perspective are currently under preparation. So, for example, my paper: “Prospects for Regional Security and Cooperation in South Caucasus: View from Georgia”, has been accepted for the 2002 World Convention of the Association for the Study of Nationalities, in New York, at Harriman Institute, Columbia University, and will be presented there on 12th April 2002. Other papers are planned for presentation and/or publication at other for a, such as ISSEI Conference “European Culture in a Changing World: Between Nationalism and Globalism” to be held in Aberystwyth, Wales, between 22-27 July, 2002; or at the First World Congress for Middle Eastern Studies in Mainz, Germany, on September 9-12, 2002.

The ultimate goal of the project was and is and is supporting the development of long-term, strategic thinking and planning among top-level policy-makers in the region, empowering the society at large to follow, discuss, understand and participate in designing the country security related (and other important) policies. My involvement, together with my IPF colleague, Nana Sumbadze, in launching in Tbilisi the Institute of Policy Studies, will definitely create a powerful instrument for achieving such goal. Equally important from this viewpoint is my participation in a number of governmental commissions and working groups.

However, much more attention should be paid to exchange of ideas and concepts with experts and decision-makers in other countries of the South Caucasus. I will build on the contacts and cooperation established during the previous travels to the region, in order to wider disseminate my findings and initiate public debate around the issues in question also in Baku and Yerevan.

If the project is successful, the debate around regional cooperative models will be of significant importance for bringing peace and stability to South Caucasus.

Implementation

Along the same lines as during the first year of work, during the first half of the project implementation period I will continue collecting primary information, analysing results of existing opinion surveys and carrying out pilot in-depth interviews. Parallel to this, I will continue studying the opinion and attitudes among local decision-makers and experts, also collecting information about western interpretation of security-related processes and preferable development scenarios in the Caucasus. I intend to travel both in the region, i.e. visiting Istanbul, Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow, and to Europe and US, attending conference and making presentations. Also, if possible, I will meet leading western experts on the Caucasus.

During the fall of 2002 I will be analysing obtained results and crosschecking first conclusions. By the fall of 2002 I will prepare the draft text of the final publication, as well as the Interim Report. By that time I will finalise and publish the several papers on Caucasian security, and prepare a draft text of the book, to be finalised by spring 2003.

In the spring I will be involved in organising a conference (in the framework of the Institute of Policy Studies) on confessional aspects of violence in the Caucasus, focusing on the role of religion in general and Islam in particular for regional security and stability. I believe that this would be a good opportunity to present my concept to the public and experts, increasing the impact of my work.