Georgia Within the New Wider Europe Context: Towards Bridging Divergent Interpretations
Statement of Purpose. Georgia’s inclusion in the EU’s European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has put the country in a new ‘Wider Europe’ context, which still needs to be shaped. This context, however, is given different readings in Brussels and Tbilisi as their ultimate goals of rapprochement diverge. On the one hand, the EU policy planners view the future Georgia in the Wider Europe as a modernized country with a developed democracy and a market economy and as an effective partner. In the long run, however—in case Georgia’s participation in the ENP is successful—Brussels, at least for the time being, does not guarantee Georgia’s accession to the EU. Difficulties and discrepancies in the ratification process of the Constitutional Treaty for Europe further reinforce this attitude. This might evoke the suspicion that the EU views or utilizes Georgia as an instrument providing a ‘security buffer’ for Europe. On the other hand, EU accession is a national project for Georgia. Institutional integration, that is, accession to the EU, has long become a major foreign policy priority and a matter of societal consensus. For this reason Georgia’s recent inclusion in the ENP is naively viewed in Tbilisi as an indirect signal of its eligibility for eventual EU membership. Additionally, what is also expected is the EU’s increased role as a foreign and security policy actor through the ENP. Because of the application of the ENP, Georgians expect a far more active role of the EU in conflict resolution and post-conflict reconstruction in Abkhazia and South Ossetia thus pressing for Russia’s constructive participation in the political stabilization of the country. This also entails the inclusion of Georgia in the EU-Russian political dialogue.
These divergent interpretations are fraught with consequences for both Brussels and Tbilisi. First, a consistently negative message on EU membership for Georgia will diminish any leverage the EU has on promoting democratic reform. This is particularly important at this moment, as the new Georgian government has set itself the goal to push through reforms that do not necessarily imply popular decisions. As these reforms are implemented in the name of joining the EU, they have, so far, been enjoying unchallenged popular support. At some juncture, however, as the possibility of the EU accession remains unclear, this support might be lost and the reforms stalled. Second, in case the EU fails to engage in constructive dialogue with Russia on the terms of resolving Georgia's outstanding security problems, the ENP’s credibility will suffer significantly. This disillusionment may diffuse elsewhere in the region as well. Third, Georgia’s misinterpretation of the ENP’s substance and objectives may be misleading in identifying priorities and activities for the Action Plan, which is due by the end of 2005. A defective Action Plan will negatively affect the second phase of the ENP, which starts in 2007 through which the major assistance programs within the European Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI) are to be implemented. Fourth, as Georgia’s inclusion in the ENP fuels its passionate desire for early accession to the EU, the necessity of assessing costs and benefits of that accession is overshadowed. Failing this, Georgia might find itself uncompetitive against new ‘rules of the game’ whenever it accedes to the EU. Experiences of some of the new EU members are noteworthy.
The ambiguities of Georgia’s role in the Wider Europe, therefore, need to be eliminated from the outset. The following issues require close examination and policy discussion; namely:
Objectives. The primary research goal is to formulate a coherent vision of Georgia’s future role and place in the enlarging Europe. To this end the project intends to help bridge the existing gap between the different interpretations in Brussels and Tbilisi. Specific objectives of the project include:
Implementation plan. The project will take several steps; on the first step stock will be taken of the political, economic and security constituents of Georgia’s evolving European identity. As these constituents might be interests as well as concerns, the analysis will be done from both EU and Georgian perspectives. This stage will involve interviewing and an analysis of literature. As the next step, the project will survey degrees of influence of each constituent on determining Georgia’s European identity. Primary purpose at this stage of research will be to identify the ways of harmonization of diverging factors that the EU and Georgian approaches might have. A special set of criteria will be used to assess options. For this reason a correlation analysis and other statistical tools will be applied; Further, the project will analyze the factors – internal and external, positive and negative – that may affect the implementation of the ENP. As the primary purpose of this part of the project will be an assessment of the ENP’s sufficiency and correspondence with Georgia’s developmental needs, expediency of providing additional incentives will also be explored. This stage of the project will involve mostly analytical and qualitative research methods. On the next to last step, the experience of the new EU member states will be examined so as to increase awareness of the costs that Georgia might have in the long run as it accedes to EU. At this stage an analysis of literature and consultations with the experts from Central and Eastern European Countries will be conducted. Finally, there will be opinions expressed and recommendations made of promoting Georgia’s European agenda, and supporting a proactive decision making process. Particularly, the recommendations will proceed from the results of the previous stages and will apply to promotion of converging approaches to Georgia’s evolving European identity, the ENP implementation, and crafting sound strategy for Georgia’s sustainable development. The EU and Georgian government will be the primary addressees of these recommendations. Some recommendations may concern the international community.
Deliverables and expected results. The primary result of the project will be the raised awareness among Georgian and European policy planners about the implications of Georgia’s inclusion in the ENP.
Accomplishment of the project will also result in: