AZERBAIJAN’S OIL REVENUES:
CHALLENGES FOR
GOVERNMENT AND CIVIL SOCIETY
Sabit Bagirov
Outline of Research
Paper
1. Anticipated
revenues
- Oil
project development scenarios
- Impact
of the oil price on the country’s revenues
- Components
of oil revenue flows (share in the profit oil, bonuses, tax, payments into
social funds, customs duties, payment for lease of technical facilities,
buildings, etc.)
- Recipients
of oil revenues (state institutions)
- Dynamics
of oil revenues
2. Systemic loss
risks
- Lack of government
experience in managing major revenues
- Imperfect laws
- Dependence of the
judiciary on the executive branch
- Dependence of the
legislature on the executive branch
- High level of corruption
- Weakness of democratic
institutions
- Weakness of civil society
- Weakness of the
independent media
3. Revenue loss
risk in the process of managing oil contracts
- Government’s
role in managing contracts
- Oversight
on the part of civil society
- Conflict
of interests between the national oil company and PSA
4. Loss risks in
the process of managing revenues accumulating in the oil fund
- Placement
of the fund’s resources
- Investment
in securities
- Investment
in infrastructure and other government projects
5. Loss risks in
the process of state budget expenditure
- Expenditure
on social sphere
- Expenditure
on government’s investment projects
- State
purchases